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ESRI "even with no debt we need to cut"

Monday, September 24 07:41:01

The report by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) suggests that Ireland's economy will contract once again this year, with only low growth likely next year. In its latest quarterly economic commentary, the ESRI says the economy is "bouncing along the bottom" and forecasts that unemployment is set to remain high next year.

It believes this year GNP, the measure of economic activity that excludes foreign multinationals, will shrink by 0.2pc, but it expects it will turn positive next year, with growth of 0.7pc. Using GDP, which is used to measure the fiscal targets set by the Troika, the picture is slightly more positive, with the ESRI predicting growth this year of 1.8pc, and 2.1pc next year, which is much higher than other official forecasts.

It points out that even if there was no national debt to service, there would still be a large budget deficit to close. It says day-to-day spending outstrips tax revenues.