The Brexit is the most immediate and significant threat to the Irish retail recovery and consumer confidence according to Retail Ireland, the Ibec group that represents the retail sector.
The organisation has warned of a sharp rise in cross border shopping if a vote to leave further weakened the sterling rate. Retail Ireland say a UK decision to leave the EU would be a major economic shock and would prompt a period of immense uncertainty that would inevitably set back the consumer recovery.
The group yesterday published its latest quarterly Retail Monitor for the first quarter of 2016 with key indicators highlighting continued growth in the sector during the first quarter of 2016, largely driven by St. Patrick's Day and an early Easter.
However, international uncertainty allied with domestic cost pressures would suggest that continued strong growth this year is not guaranteed. Retail Ireland currently projects consumer spending growth of 4.1% this year, but this figure would most likely be subject to a downward revision in the case of a Brexit.
Retail Ireland Director, Thomas Burke says, "The recent decline in consumer sentiment reflects concerns about external risks such as a Brexit and domestic political uncertainty. The recent suggestion by leaders of the UK Leave campaign that the UK would choose to exit the EU single market post-Brexit would further increase the likelihood of the reintroduction of some form of border between the Republic and Northern Ireland and additional barriers to trade with the rest of the UK. This is a deeply worrying prospect for any retailer operating across the British and Irish markets."
Source: www.businessworld.ie
