The latest Global Trade Forecast from HSBC predicts a positive long-term outlook for Ireland predicting 6% annual growth in the value of trade over the period 2021-2030.
They believe that robust growth in the US and UK and a weaker euro should help sustain strong export growth in the coming years.
While these markets remain Ireland’s most important export destinations, climbing incomes in emerging markets should help Ireland to expand its export base in the longer term. HSBC claim that Ireland is also well-placed to benefit from increasing trade liberalisation, as several international agreements draw closer to being signed in the coming years.
The projections show that the fastest-growing export destination for Irish exports in the decade to 2030 will be China, closely followed by Vietnam, India and Malaysia, all with export growth of around 11% per annum.
The report identifies the chemicals sector, which comprises chemical and pharmaceutical products, as being set to retain its dominant position as Ireland’s top export sector, but also focussed on another area where Ireland is a leading exporter - electronics. The report forecasts robust growth in the electronics industry to continue in the medium term with Irish exports of electronics forecast to grow by 5% per annum over the period 2015-30.
HSBC Ireland CEO Alan Duffy said, "The outlook for the Irish trade sector is bright in the short and long term. We are absolutely right to look further overseas, with exports to China, for example, expected to grow by 11% per annum in the decade to 2030. However, China will not displace the UK or the US as Ireland’s most important export market and we mustn't lose sight of the importance of our traditional trading partners."
He further added, "Ireland has established itself as a major manufacturing and export centre for multinational electronics companies, supplying approximately 20% of Western Europe’s electronics. Strong growth is projected and there is further cause for optimism in a proposed expansion of the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement to eliminate tariffs on an additional 200 products, which would increase trade openness and further lower the costs of locating manufacturing facilities here, encouraging more inward investment."
Source: www.businessworld.ie
