Irish labour market data for the second quarter 2016 has been published today. The unemployment rate was flat at 7.8% for four consecutive months, May through to July.

However, Davy Stockbrokers have warned initial estimates based on changes in social welfare claimants, tend to be revised heavily.

For example, in the first quarter 2016, the first estimate of the unemployment rate was 8.8% but has now been revised down to 8.3% after the full Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS), containing details on employment and labour force growth, was published. 

Davys believe a similar revision today could push the unemployment rate well below 7.5%. That said, they claim the labour force contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter 2016 and could bounce back in the second quarter, pushing up the unemployment rate.

According to Davy Stockbrokers, "The release is likely to receive more attention as a guide to the underlying state of the Irish economy given the sorry state of Ireland’s national accounts, signalling a 26.3% expansion in 2015. At face value, recent Irish labour market data could be taken as a sign that activity is slowing."

Source: www.businessworld.ie