The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has published a preliminary estimate of Irish GDP growth for the first time. This is set to be published 30 days in advance of official national accounts data, which we will not receive until the end of February 2022.
It is estimated that GDP growth grew 3.5% quarter on quarter (qoq) in in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The report suggests that Ireland experienced GDP growth of 12.2% year on year (yoy) in 2022, making Ireland the fast growing economy in Europe in GDP terms last year.
Goodbody Stockbrokers say this comes on top of the remarkable pandemic performance which saw GDP growth of 13.6% yoy in 2021, bringing Ireland’s cumulative GDP growth to 33% since 2019, the last year the pandemic was not in the data.
Goodbody has warned that GDP growth data for Ireland can be skewed by multinational activities, some of which is from sources that do not reside in Ireland.
According to Goodbody Stockbrokers, "Modified domestic demand, a measure of domestic economic activity provides a better depiction of the Ireland’s true economic condition. On this measure, we expect growth to fall substantially to 0.7% in 2023, reflecting economic headwinds such as a curtailment in household spending in the face of higher living costs and the eventuality of higher mortgage rates."