The Central Bank has published the fourth Quarterly Bulletin for 2016. The Bulletin examines recent trends in the domestic and international economies, as well as presenting the Central Bank’s forecasts for the Irish economy and its views on domestic macroeconomic policy issues.
The forecast is broadly unchanged from previous Bulletin with modest downward revision to growth. Irish GDP is forecast to grow by 4.5% this year, reflecting a reduced contribution from exports and some moderation in growth of domestic demand.
The bulletin shows that consumer spending grew strongly in the first quarter but declined in seasonally adjusted terms in the second quarter.
Chief Economist, Gabriel Fagan said, "The initial fears in relation to the impact of Brexit on the UK economy have given way to a less pessimistic assessment in recent months, against the background of some more positive UK economic data and an accommodative policy environment."
He added, "While this leads to the judgment that it is not appropriate, at this point, to make a further negative Brexit adjustment to the forecasts, the potential for adverse macroeconomic, financial and currency market effects to quickly reemerge remains. In such circumstances, risks to the latest forecasts remain clearly tilted to the downside."