Irish-U.K. trade could fall by almost 10% because of border delays and Brexit bureaucracy, according a Central Bank study.
Delays as a result of non-tariff barriers, such as documentary compliances and customs procedures, could drive down imports and exports by an estimated 9.6%. This amounts to declines of 3.2% of total Irish imports and 1.4% of total Irish exports globally.
The research showed that the largest declines in imports to Ireland from the UK are found to be in fresh foods, manufacturing materials and machinery, and transport equipment. Three of Ireland’s largest goods imports from the UK, minerals and fuels, non-perishable foods, and chemicals, are largely unaffected. On the export side, the most largest declines are in fresh foods, machinery and transport equipment, and manufacturing materials.
Mark Cassidy, Director of Economics and Statistics, said: “The potential effect of tariffs following the UK’s departure from the customs union is well documented, but the impact of non-tariff barriers has received less attention, despite existing research that finds customs delays to be one of the largest of all barriers to trade.
Mr Cassidy concluded: “It’s clear from today’s research that the potential effect of Britain’s decision to leave the EU would be negative and significant for Irish-UK trade, with trade in raw materials, beverages and fresh foods most vulnerable to customs delays. This highlights the vital importance of negotiations on future arrangements for trade.”